- Will no next Israeli Minister of Interior be appointed by February 28, 2027?38¢38 %
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?26¢26 %
- Will Yoram Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?26¢26 %
- Will Michael Malchieli be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?24¢24 %
- Will Aryeh Deri be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?15¢15 %
- Will Yoav Ben-Tzur be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?13¢13 %
- Will Miri Regev be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?9¢9 %
- Will Moshe Arbel be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?9¢9 %
- Will Keren Terner Eyal be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?7¢7 %
- Will Orit Farkash-Hacohen be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?7¢7 %
- Will Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper) be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?6¢6 %
- Will Yariv Levin be the next Israeli Minister of Interior?4¢4 %
- 3 %37,5 %No Next Minister by Feb 28Volym 17,5 tn $
1 %26,1 %Avigdor LiebermanVolym 316,8 $
1 %25,9 %Yoram CohenVolym 391,5 $
1 %23,7 %Michael MalchieliVolym 3 tn $
15,4 %Aryeh DeriVolym 501,5 $
12,5 %Yoav Ben-TzurVolym 2,6 tn $
8,8 %Miri RegevVolym 1,1 tn $
8,5 %Moshe ArbelVolym 1,2 tn $
7,3 %Keren Terner EyalVolym 355,2 $
7,2 %Orit Farkash-HacohenVolym 421,5 $
5,6 %Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)Volym 383,1 $
3,7 %Yariv LevinVolym 362,8 $
The inconclusive October 27 Knesset election results and ensuing coalition negotiations have kept probabilities tightly clustered among multiple candidates for Israel's next interior minister. With no bloc securing a clear majority, President Herzog's consultations continue to shape expectations, as potential governing partners—including Likud, opposition factions, and Arab lists backing Gadi Eisenkot—negotiate portfolios amid uncertainty over the prime minister designate. The 35.5% odds on no appointment by February 28 reflect delays tied to these talks, while lower shares for figures such as Yoram Cohen, Avigdor Lieberman, and Aryeh Deri capture their dependence on specific coalition alignments or party leverage. Any breakthrough in mandate assignment or portfolio deals could quickly shift trader consensus toward frontrunners aligned with the emerging government.
Regler
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Interior in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Interior will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Interior” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Interior are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Interior assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.