- Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?9¢9 %
- Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?30¢30 %
- Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027?67¢67 %
- Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?84¢84 %
- 1 %8,6 %November 30, 2026Volym 59,1 tn $
- 29,5 %December 31, 2026Volym 50,2 tn $
- 11 %66,5 %February 28, 2027Volym 34,1 tn $
- 8 %83,5 %June 30, 2027Volym 34,9 tn $
Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election produced no majority coalition, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud-led right-wing and religious bloc securing 53 seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar-led opposition bloc winning 48 seats in the 120-seat parliament. Arab parties captured a record 19 seats, positioning them as potential kingmakers, though most Jewish parties have pledged against including them. As of early November, party consultations showed 67 lawmakers recommending Eisenkot for the mandate versus 46 for Netanyahu, prompting President Isaac Herzog to decide the first designee by mid-November. The designated leader will have up to 42 days to assemble 61 seats, with Netanyahu continuing as caretaker prime minister. Failure risks new elections in early 2027, while a unity government or minority arrangement with external support remain among the limited paths forward amid mutual vetoes on partners and policy priorities.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe. Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.