- Will Guy Cormier win the 2026 Laurier—Sainte-Marie by-election?95¢95 %
- Will Zumretay Arkin win the 2026 Laurier—Sainte-Marie by-election?4¢4 %
- Will Nimâ Machouf win the 2026 Laurier—Sainte-Marie by-election?2¢2 %
- Will Mathieu Fournier win the 2026 Laurier—Sainte-Marie by-election?2¢2 %
14 %94,5 %Guy CormierVolym 2,3 tn $
12 %3,5 %Zumretay ArkinVolym 575,5 $
4 %2,2 %Nimâ MachoufVolym 272,7 $- 4 %1,8 %Mathieu FournierVolym 215,6 $
Guy Cormier’s selection as the Liberal candidate in the December 7, 2026 by-election for the Laurier—Sainte-Marie riding has driven the market’s strong consensus. The Montreal seat has been held by Liberals since 2015, with the party securing over 51 percent in the 2025 general election despite the resignation of former MP Steven Guilbeault. Cormier, former Desjardins Group CEO, brings significant business and community profile in Quebec and was announced in late October 2026. Forecasts project the Liberals well ahead of the NDP’s Nimâ Machouf, the Bloc Québécois’s Zumretay Arkin, and other contenders, consistent with historical patterns in the riding. A late shift in Quebec voter sentiment or unusually low turnout could narrow margins, though current evidence points to limited scope for such changes before voting.
Regler
A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Laurier—Sainte-Marie is currently scheduled to be held on December 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Laurier—Sainte-Marie by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).