- Will Cheng Chao-fang win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?61¢61 %
- Will Hsu Hsin-ying win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?38¢38 %
- Will Lin Szu-ming win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Chen Chien-hsien win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?<1¢<1 %
14 %60,5 %Cheng Chao-fangVolym 20,7 tn $
13 %38 %Hsu Hsin-yingVolym 20,5 tn $
Cheng Chao-fang holds the leading position in the Hsinchu County magistrate race as the Democratic Progressive Party nominee. Recent polling trends and campaign dynamics have reinforced trader consensus around his edge, with the market pricing Cheng at 71.5% versus Hsu Hsin-ying at 27%. The KMT nominee secured her party’s nomination in March after a contentious primary against Chen Chien-hsien, while Cheng received the DPP nod in June. The November 28 election features three registered candidates following the late-October ballot draw, where Cheng drew position one. Mixed late-October surveys show varying leads of roughly 6–15 points, highlighting the race’s sensitivity to turnout among KMT supporters, independent voters, and key municipalities such as Zhubei. Other listed outcomes remain at negligible probabilities.
Regler
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Hsinchu County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).