- Захватит ли Россия Лиман к 31 декабря 2026 года?35¢
- Захватит ли Россия Лиман к 30 сентября 2026 года?8¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Lyman railroad station located on Vulytsya Pryvokzalʹna by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Train Station Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station+zoom.png Train Station Location in Lyman: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman+train+station.jpeg Lyman Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/lyman.jpeg Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/zeVSXaeDH93mF2WPA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Russian forces continue incremental pressure on Lyman in northern Donetsk Oblast as a potential gateway toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, yet Ukrainian defenses have prevented any sustained foothold inside the city. Independent assessments show Russian units maintaining only limited presence—around 4 percent of the urban area—through infiltration rather than capture, with advances slowed by Ukrainian counterattacks north of the city, fiber-optic and other drones disrupting logistics, and challenging terrain along the Siverskyi Donets. Official Russian claims of major gains have been contradicted by geolocated evidence and frontline reporting, while overall territorial progress across the sector has declined sharply from prior periods. Putin has directed full control of Donetsk Oblast by year-end 2026, but analysts note the timeline faces structural barriers from Ukrainian resistance and resource constraints. Trader consensus reflects this grinding stalemate rather than near-term resolution.