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Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent polls show former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party leading or tying Likud as the largest Knesset faction ahead of the October 27, 2026 election, with Eisenkot ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in head-to-head suitability questions by margins such as 44% to 34%. Eisenkot’s positioning reflects voter emphasis on security credentials and cross-bloc appeal following the October 7, 2023 attacks and subsequent conflicts, while Netanyahu’s support remains anchored in his coalition but constrained by bloc projections that fall short of 61 seats. Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Lieberman, and smaller right-wing figures trail due to more limited projected mandates and narrower bases, with trader odds tracking these Knesset and prime ministerial polling trends amid ongoing coalition negotiations and threshold risks for minor parties.