- Выиграет ли PP наибольшее количество мест в Толедо на всеобщих выборах в Испании 2026 года?63¢63 %
- Выиграет ли Vox больше всего мест в Толедо на всеобщих выборах в Испании в 2026 году?12¢12 %
- Получит ли PSOE больше всего мест в Толедо на всеобщих выборах в Испании 2026 года?11¢11 %
- Получит ли Широкий фронт (FA) больше всего мест в Толедо на всеобщих выборах в Испании 2026 года?<1¢<1 %
- Выиграет ли Podemos больше всего мест в Толедо на всеобщих выборах в Испании 2026 года?<1¢<1 %
Recent national polling averages place the PP ahead by roughly five points over the PSOE, with Vox consolidating support on the right ahead of the November 29 snap election. This positioning has lifted implied probabilities for a PP plurality in Toledo, where the province’s six congressional seats are allocated under the D’Hondt system. Local candidate lists, including the PSOE’s decision to place Minister Milagros Tolón at the top in Toledo, have not altered the broader right-leaning trend visible in regional and national surveys. With PP and Vox projected to combine for a congressional majority in most models, traders view the center-right bloc as better positioned to outperform the governing left in this constituency. Upcoming campaign events and any late shifts in turnout among swing voters remain the main variables that could still influence the final margin.
Правила
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Toledo as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in the constituency of Toledo, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in the constituency of Toledo, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).