- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?100¢100 %
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?0¢0 %
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?0¢0 %
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?0¢0 %
- Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?0¢0 %
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?0¢0 %
- Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?0¢0 %
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?0¢0 %
- Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?0¢0 %
The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—following July's hold at 3.5-3.75%—has anchored trader consensus on the "Other" outcome at 99.7% for the July-October sequence. Persistent inflation above target, resilient economic activity, and geopolitical risks prompted the hawkish pivot, with updated projections now showing a median year-end 2026 rate near 4.1% and limited easing thereafter. This path deviates sharply from the low-probability pause or cut sequences, which together hold just 0.4%. An October hike or further tightening would reinforce the current pricing, while an unexpected cut would require a sharp deterioration in labor or inflation data to shift the aggregated market-implied odds.
Правила
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm