- Не произойдут ли снижения ставок ФРС в 2026 году?87¢
- Произойдет ли одно снижение ставки ФРС в 2026 году?10¢
- Будут ли в 2026 году два снижения ставки ФРС?3¢
- Состоятся ли три снижения ставки ФРС в 2026 году?<1¢
- Состоятся ли четыре снижения ставки ФРС в 2026 году?<1¢
- Состоятся ли пять снижений ставок ФРС в 2026 году?<1¢
- Состоятся ли шесть снижений ставки ФРС в 2026 году?<1¢
- произойдут ли 7 снижений ставки ФРС в 2026 году?<1¢
- Состоятся ли восемь снижений ставки ФРС в 2026 году?<1¢
- Будут ли в 2026 году девять снижений ставки ФРС?<1¢
- Состоятся ли десять снижений ставки ФРС в 2026 году?<1¢
- Состоятся ли 11 снижений ставки ФРС в 2026 году?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and a hawkish policy stance are anchoring trader expectations for zero federal funds rate cuts through the end of 2026. With the benchmark range held at 3.50–3.75% following the July FOMC meeting, core PCE inflation remains near 3.3–3.7% amid tariff pass-through, elevated energy costs from Middle East tensions, and AI-driven demand pressures. Recent minutes highlighted that many participants see tightening as likely necessary if inflation fails to moderate, while the labor market stays stable and growth continues. Market-implied odds reflect this consensus, pricing minimal easing probability as participants await clearer disinflation signals before any policy pivot. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases will serve as key tests of whether these conditions persist.