- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?98¢98 %
- Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?2¢2 %
- 2 %97,7 %NoneVol. 10,4 mil. $
- 2 %2,3 %AKVol. 1,6 mil. $
Republican prospects for winning Senate seats in swing states face substantial structural and political headwinds, reflected in the overwhelming trader consensus favoring the "None" outcome. The 2026 map features multiple Democratic-held competitive seats where polling averages and historical midterm turnout patterns indicate resilience, particularly around issues such as healthcare, border security, and economic conditions. Primary source data on candidate fundraising, endorsements, and state-level voter registration trends reinforce limited Republican pathways in these battlegrounds. Scenarios that could alter this assessment include unexpected shifts in national economic indicators, major legislative breakthroughs or failures in Congress, or unusually high turnout among specific voting blocs in states like Georgia or Michigan before election night.
Reguli
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.