- Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?2¢2 %
Traders assign a 98.3% implied probability against removal of President Trump via the 25th Amendment before 2027 due to the amendment's high procedural thresholds and the current alignment of executive and legislative actors. Invocation requires the vice president and a cabinet majority to declare incapacity, followed by a two-thirds vote in both chambers of Congress to sustain removal, a sequence never completed in U.S. history. With no verified reports of medical or cognitive impairment and key appointees drawn from the president's political circle, the structural barriers remain substantial. Historical precedent shows the provision used mainly for temporary medical procedures rather than contested ousters. Late developments capable of shifting odds include an acute health crisis, a cabinet-level revolt, or bipartisan congressional consensus on incapacity, though none appear imminent within the resolution window.
Reguli
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.