- Will PP win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?93¢93 %
- Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?8¢8 %
- Will Vox win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Broad Front (FA) win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Podemos win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?<1¢<1 %
4 %92,5 %PPVol. 130,4 K $
2 %8 %PSOEVol. 165,8 K $
0,2 %VoxVol. 20,3 K $
PP leads the Spain general election market at 89.5% implied probability due to sustained polling advantages ahead of the November 29 snap vote. Multiple surveys through early November place the center-right party on 29–32% support, ahead of PSOE on 25–29%, with the PP-Vox bloc projected to secure a parliamentary majority in over 99% of simulations. The October 5 dissolution of parliament, triggered by failed housing decrees, shifted focus to voter priorities on the economy and migration, where PP holds stronger positioning. Left-wing fragmentation, including incomplete coordination around the Broad Front, has limited PSOE's ability to consolidate support, while Vox's gains further bolster the right-wing coalition path. Recent individual polls showing minor PSOE upticks have not altered the overall trader consensus on PP as the frontrunner.
Reguli
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) nationwide in this election, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists nationwide, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People’s Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).