- Will Podemos win exactly 0 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?49¢49 %
- Will Podemos win exactly 1 seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?34¢34 %
- Will Podemos win exactly 2 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?11¢11 %
- Will Podemos win exactly 3 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?3¢3 %
- Will Podemos win exactly 4 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Podemos win 5 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?<1¢<1 %
- 8 %49 %0Vol. 11 K $
- 4 %34 %1Vol. 1,8 K $
- 10,5 %2Vol. 2,4 K $
- 1 %3,2 %3Vol. 3,1 K $
- 0,7 %4Vol. 1,3 K $
- 0,2 %5+Vol. 1 K $
Spain’s November 29 snap general election has left Podemos, polling near 2% nationally, facing steep barriers to congressional representation. Persistent fragmentation on the left, after nationwide coalition talks with the Frente Amplio collapsed in mid-October, has forced separate candidacies in most districts and produced vote splitting that the D’Hondt system penalizes heavily in smaller provinces. Podemos secured only limited regional pacts in Valencia and the Canary Islands while backing ERC in Catalonia rather than fielding its own lists. Most recent polling averages project 0–1 seats for the party, consistent with trader pricing that assigns roughly 83% probability to that range. The broader rightward shift evident in PP and Vox gains has further compressed space for smaller left-wing options ahead of the vote.
Reguli
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Podemos in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).