- Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?<1¢<1 %
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?1¢1 %
- No change in Reserve Bank of New Zealand's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?36¢36 %
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?64¢64 %
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the December 2026 meeting?3¢3 %
- 0,3 %50+ bps decreaseVol. 3,4 K $
- 4 %1,5 %25 bps decreaseVol. 3,5 K $
- 12 %35,5 %No changeVol. 19,5 K $
- 7 %63,5 %25 bps increaseVol. 30,2 K $
- 1 %2,7 %50+ bps increaseVol. 3,9 K $
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s October 28 decision to hold the official cash rate at 2.75 percent in a 4-3 split, paired with Governor Anna Breman’s subsequent statement that a December hike carries “high” odds, has anchored trader pricing for a 25-basis-point increase at the December 9 Monetary Policy Statement. September-quarter CPI eased to 3.7 percent year-over-year, below consensus, yet the bank’s forecast for a rebound to 4.4 percent in the December quarter—driven by fuel prices—has reinforced the tightening bias. Committee members broadly agreed further OCR rises are likely, conditional on incoming inflation, labor-market, and global-risk data. This environment has produced the current 61 percent market-implied probability of a December 25-basis-point move versus 33 percent for no change, reflecting real-capital consensus on the balance of risks ahead of the next release.
Reguli
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 9, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.