- Will Christopher Luxon be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?57¢57 %
- Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?43¢43 %
- Will Nicola Willis be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?<1¢<1 %
- Will Winston Peters be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?<1¢<1 %
- Will Chlöe Swarbrick be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?<1¢<1 %
- Will David Seymour be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?<1¢<1 %
- Will Carmel Sepuloni be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?<1¢<1 %
1 %57 %Christopher LuxonVol. 67,4 K $
1 %43 %Chris HipkinsVol. 76,9 K $
Recent polling for New Zealand’s November 7 general election shows the National Party under incumbent Prime Minister Christopher Luxon running neck-and-neck with Labour led by Chris Hipkins, with neither major bloc projected to secure a majority on its own under the mixed-member proportional system. Traders assign Luxon the leading 56.5% probability because his party maintains a narrow edge in several final surveys as preferred prime minister and retains established coalition options with ACT and New Zealand First. Hipkins sits at 41.5% amid Labour’s steady support and potential backing from the Greens, yet faces uncertainty over whether the centrist Opportunity Party clears the threshold to act as kingmaker. The contest centers on cost-of-living pressures, healthcare access, and tax policy, with late-campaign shifts in minor-party support capable of altering the final government-formation path.
Reguli
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.