- Will no listed leader be out before 2027?60¢60 %
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?25¢25 %
- Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?7¢7 %
- Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?2¢2 %
- Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?2¢2 %
- Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?1¢1 %
- Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?1¢1 %
- Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?<1¢<1 %
- Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?<1¢<1 %
- Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?<1¢<1 %
- Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?<1¢<1 %
- Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?<1¢<1 %
- 4 %59,5 %None before 2027Vol. 360,5 K $
- 4 %24,5 %Netanyahu - Israel PMVol. 533,6 K $
- 3 %7,2 %Sánchez - Spanish PMVol. 90,5 K $
- 2 %2,2 %Lecornu - France PMVol. 63,3 K $
- 1,5 %Abbas - President of PalestineVol. 67,8 K $
- 1 %1,3 %Trump - USA PresidentVol. 73,8 K $
- 1,2 %Díaz-Canel - Cuba PresidentVol. 84,4 K $
- 0,7 %Kim - Supreme Leader of North KoreaVol. 100,1 K $
- 0,7 %Merz - German ChancellorVol. 81,6 K $
- 0,6 %Xi - General Secretary of the CCPVol. 95,1 K $
- 0,5 %Putin - Russia PresidentVol. 70,4 K $
- 0,4 %Erdoğan - Türkiye PresidentVol. 69,1 K $
Trader consensus prices "none before 2027" as the leading outcome at 55.5 percent, reflecting limited near-term electoral or institutional pressures on most incumbents through late 2026. Netanyahu registers the next-highest implied probability at 22.5 percent amid ongoing coalition strains and security policy demands in Israel, while Sánchez sits at 10 percent due to regional voting cycles and parliamentary arithmetic in Spain. Remaining candidates carry single-digit or lower shares because of longer constitutional terms, party control, or absence of scheduled votes or legal deadlines within the resolution window. Traders continue to monitor any sudden coalition shifts, court rulings, or early election calls that could accelerate leadership changes before the cutoff.
Reguli
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.