- Macron out by December 31, 2026?1¢1 %
Emmanuel Macron’s second presidential term ends in May 2027 under France’s constitutional two-term limit, which bars him from seeking a third consecutive mandate. Traders assign roughly 2% probability to his departure by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of formal resignation signals or constitutional triggers. Recent cost-of-living protests escalated into widespread unrest and looting in October 2026, prompting curfews, protest restrictions, and public criticism of security planning, yet Macron has rejected cabinet resignations and continued official duties including foreign travel. Parliamentary budget disputes and opposition calls for early departure have not altered the timeline. The April 18 and May 2, 2027, presidential election dates remain fixed, with candidate positioning already underway across the political spectrum.
Reguli
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.