- Will fewer than 215 House members vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?12¢12 %
- Will 215-219 House members vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?22¢22 %
- Will 220-224 House members vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?21¢21 %
- Will 225-229 House members vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?11¢11 %
- Will 230-234 House members vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?16¢16 %
- Will 235-239 House members vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?10¢10 %
- Will 240 or more House members vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?10¢10 %
- Will there be no House floor vote to impeach Hegseth by December 31?17¢17 %
- 11 %11,5 %<215Vol. 774,2 $
- 8 %21,5 %215-219Vol. 291,1 $
- 4 %21 %220-224Vol. 707 $
- 3 %11 %225-229Vol. 210,7 $
- 20 %15,5 %230-234Vol. 338,7 $
- 14 %10 %235-239Vol. 149 $
- 5 %10,5 %240+Vol. 250,4 $
- 9 %17 %No voteVol. 523,6 $
Post-midterm election losses widely attributed to backlash against the Iran conflict have intensified pressure on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, with Republican Rep. Thomas Massie preparing to force a House vote on his privileged impeachment resolution when Congress reconvenes November 9. The articles cite alleged unauthorized military actions without congressional approval. In the current Republican-controlled chamber, Democratic support combined with potential GOP defections could reach or exceed a simple majority, yet leadership may seek to table the measure. This uncertainty sustains tight probabilities across vote thresholds near 215-239, as trader consensus weighs lame-duck session dynamics, party discipline, and any last-minute statements or procedural maneuvers that could alter cross-aisle participation before December 31.
Reguli
This market will resolve according to the number of members of the US House of Representatives who vote in favor of impeaching United States Secretary of War (also referred to as the Secretary of Defense) Pete Hegseth on the legislative day of the first House floor vote on articles of impeachment against him held between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If multiple floor votes on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth are held on the first legislative day on which such a floor vote is held, this market will resolve based on the vote that receives the highest number of votes in favor. Votes held on any later legislative day will not be considered. A floor vote on articles of impeachment is a recorded vote of the full House on the adoption of a resolution impeaching Pete Hegseth or of one or more articles of impeachment against him. Procedural votes, including but not limited to votes on motions to table, motions to refer or commit, motions on the previous question, and votes on rules governing debate, will not count, even if the result of such a vote prevents a floor vote on articles of impeachment from being held. The outcome of the vote (whether or not the articles are adopted) does not affect resolution; only the number of votes in favor of impeachment is considered. If no floor vote on articles of impeachment against Pete Hegseth is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No vote". The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call records of the Clerk of the US House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.