- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.8% before 2027?61¢61 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.7% before 2027?48¢48 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.6% before 2027?27¢27 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?16¢16 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.4% before 2027?12¢12 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.3% before 2027?8¢8 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.2% before 2027?5¢5 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.1% before 2027?4¢4 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?4¢4 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.8% before 2027?4¢4 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?2¢2 %
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.6% before 2027?3¢3 %
- 10 %60,5 %Below 4.8%Vol. 57,3 K $
- 4 %48 %Below 4.7%Vol. 26,7 K $
- 2 %26,5 %Below 4.6%Vol. 36,7 K $
- 1 %16,1 %Below 4.5%Vol. 33 K $
- 1 %12 %Below 4.4%Vol. 28,1 K $
- 3 %8,1 %Below 4.3%Vol. 10,1 K $
- 5,2 %Below 4.2%Vol. 7,2 K $
- 4,1 %Below 4.1%Vol. 12,8 K $
- 3,6 %Below 3.9%Vol. 58,7 K $
- 1 %3,7 %Below 3.8%Vol. 66,5 K $
- 1,6 %Below 3.7%Vol. 39,2 K $
- 2,6 %Below 3.6%Vol. 13,3 K $
Recent data showing resilient U.S. growth at 3.4% annualized in Q3 alongside sticky inflation near 3.7% have reinforced trader expectations for a higher-for-longer policy path, with the Fed holding the funds rate at 3.75-4% in October and markets assigning elevated odds of a December hike. The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.83%, has eased modestly on post-election fiscal restraint signals and equity volatility-driven flight-to-safety flows, yet term premium remains elevated amid fiscal deficits and AI-related productivity gains. Upcoming October employment and CPI releases, followed by the December FOMC meeting with updated projections, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance between rate-hike expectations and any moderation in growth or price pressures before year-end.
Reguli
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).