- A Ucrânia concordará em ceder território à Rússia antes de 2027?11¢
- A Ucrânia aceitará ceder território à Rússia até 31 de agosto de 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Ongoing deadlock over territorial concessions, especially Ukrainian-held portions of Donetsk oblast in the Donbas, remains the central barrier to any Ukraine-Russia agreement. Russia continues to insist on full control of the region plus recognition of other annexed areas as a precondition for ceasefire or security arrangements, while Ukraine rejects unilateral withdrawals from positions it still controls and conditions any compromise on credible security guarantees and domestic approval processes such as referendums. U.S.-facilitated trilateral talks through mid-2026 produced no breakthrough on these issues, and recent diplomatic contacts have yielded only modest Russian frontline gains without shifting Kyiv's stance. Upcoming developments that could influence outcomes include further high-level U.S.-Russia or European-mediated contacts and any sustained changes in battlefield control before the market resolution window.