- O regime iraniano cairá até 30 de setembro?1¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience through leadership decapitation, sustained military exchanges with Israel and the United States, and repeated waves of domestic unrest explains the near-certain trader consensus against regime collapse by September 30. Succession to Mojtaba Khamenei occurred rapidly without major military defections, while security forces maintained control despite economic contraction, rial depreciation, and intensified sanctions. Ongoing diplomatic channels and the absence of coordinated elite fractures or nationwide mobilization in recent weeks further reinforce expectations of continuity. A sudden, decisive shift would require an unprecedented internal rupture or external blow within the narrow remaining window—developments that remain low-probability given current institutional cohesion and suppression capacity.