- A Tesla lançará o Optimus até 31 de dezembro de 2026?3¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
Tesla’s Optimus Gen 3 production timeline continues to drive trader sentiment, with low-volume output now slated for late July or August 2026 at the converted Fremont factory line following repeated delays. As of mid-July 2026, installation of first-generation lines remained ongoing per the Q2 earnings update, with early units directed toward internal training and data collection rather than external sales or deployment. Musk has highlighted supply-chain complexity involving 10,000 unique parts and integration of the AI5 chip for on-device autonomy, while high-volume targets at Gigafactory Texas shift to 2027. Upcoming Q3 earnings and factory updates could clarify whether initial builds meet “release” criteria such as paid deposits or third-party access.