- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?77¢
- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?2¢
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?11¢
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?12¢
- Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
- Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
- Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
- Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Anthropic’s recent releases, particularly Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1, have driven its 76% market-implied odds by topping independent leaderboards on coding and agentic benchmarks such as SWE-bench Pro and the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index. Traders appear to view the model’s performance edge in software engineering and long-horizon tasks as durable through October, reinforced by prior Opus 4.8 and Fable 5 gains that established Anthropic’s lead over rivals. OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra launch on September 3 and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash updates have narrowed gaps on select metrics but not displaced the consensus leader. With roughly eight weeks until resolution, further frontier releases or benchmark shifts remain the key swing factors that could alter these probabilities.