- Alberta votará pela independência em 2026?6¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a referendum on Alberta's independence from Canada is passed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any referendum that establishes Alberta's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Recent polling across multiple firms, including Angus Reid and Ipsos, shows 60-72% of Albertans favoring remaining in Canada on the October 19, 2026 referendum question, with only 19-35% supporting steps toward a future binding vote on separation. Premier Danielle Smith has framed the non-binding vote as fulfilling citizen petitions while emphasizing her own preference for Canadian unity, amid ongoing legal challenges from First Nations groups over treaty rights and constitutional consultation requirements. Separatist campaigns have raised funds and released policy blueprints, yet direct support for independence hovers near 30%, with many "leave" voters citing protest motives rather than commitment to secession. These factors underpin trader expectations that the measure will fail.