- Donald Trump ganhará o Prêmio Nobel da Paz em 2026?2¢
- Yulia Navalnaya ganhará o Prêmio Nobel da Paz em 2026?8¢
- Greta Thunberg ganhará o Prêmio Nobel da Paz em 2026?1¢
- A UNRWA ganhará o Prêmio Nobel da Paz em 2026?4¢
- António Guterres ganhará o Prêmio Nobel da Paz em 2026?<1¢
- Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani ganhará o Prêmio Nobel da Paz em 2026?2¢
- Khaled Mashal ganhará o Prêmio Nobel da Paz em 2026?<1¢
- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ganhará o Prêmio Nobel da Paz em 2026?<1¢
- Ahmed al-Sharaa ganhará o Prêmio Nobel da Paz em 2026?1¢
- Mohammed bin Salman ganhará o Prêmio Nobel da Paz em 2026?<1¢
- O Papa Leão XIV ganhará o Prêmio Nobel da Paz em 2026?3¢
- Julian Assange ganhará o Prêmio Nobel da Paz em 2026?1¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Yulia Navalnaya holds the narrowest lead in trader sentiment for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize due to her continued human rights advocacy against authoritarianism following her husband's death, aligning with the Norwegian Nobel Committee's recent preference for principled individual activists. The field remains highly fragmented, with organizations such as UNRWA and the International Court of Justice competing alongside figures like Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Pope Leo XIV, reflecting uncertainty over whether the committee will favor grassroots humanitarian efforts, multilateral institutions, or high-profile diplomats amid ongoing global conflicts. Low implied probabilities across all options underscore the award's inherent unpredictability, driven by secret nominations and a wide pool of 287 candidates. Momentum could shift with any major diplomatic breakthroughs or public campaigns before the October 9 announcement.