- Will CXMT be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?29¢
- Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?26¢
- Will Hesai be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?18¢
- Will Unitree be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?17¢
- Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?16¢
- Will Tencent be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?14¢
- Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?13¢
- Will YMTC be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?13¢
- Will DJI be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?11¢
- Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?6¢
The Pentagon's Section 1260H list, last updated in June 2026 with 188 entities after adding dozens of major technology and industrial firms while removing ten others lacking direct U.S. operations, drives current sentiment. Large additions such as Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, and WuXi AppTec have publicly rejected the designations as baseless and signaled petitions or legal challenges for removal, following precedents where entities like Xiaomi, YMTC, and CXMT exited after administrative or court processes. Procurement restrictions on listed companies intensify through mid-2027, creating incentives for firms to demonstrate compliance or lack of military-civil fusion ties. Next annual review timing and U.S.-China diplomatic developments remain key swing factors before the June 30, 2027 resolution window.
Regras
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified company is fully removed from the list entitled “Entities Identified as Chinese Military Companies Operating in the United States in Accordance with Section 1260H of the William M. (Mac) Thornberry National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021” by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying removal occurs when the specified company named in the list on June 8, 2026 (available here: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/4511232/dow-releases-list-of-chinese-military-companies-in-accordance-with-section-1260/) no longer appears on an updated official Section 1260H list. A qualifying removal must be reflected in a subsequent list published by the U.S. Department of Defense in the Federal Register or on its official website, in an official DoD announcement or Federal Register notice of delisting. Removal of a subsidiary or affiliate entry while the specified company remains listed will not qualify. Removal of a company will qualify even if formerly affiliated subsidiaries remain listed as separate entries. An entity that ceases to appear solely due to renaming, merger with another listed entity, or transfer of the designation to a successor, parent, or affiliate entity will not be considered removed. A removal will qualify regardless of whether it is later retracted or withdrawn. For the purposes of this market, a company’s status will be entirely determined by its presence on the aforementioned list. If the enforcement of its designation is suspended without being removed from the aforementioned list, that will not qualify as a removal. If no qualifying announcement or list republishing occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the Department of Defense (https://www.defense.gov) (a.k.a. Department of War, https://www.war.gov).