- A Anthropic terá o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro de 2026?91¢
- A Meta terá o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro de 2026?<1¢
- O Google terá o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro de 2026?2¢
- A Alibaba terá o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro de 2026?<1¢
- A Moonshot terá o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro de 2026?<1¢
- A OpenAI terá o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro de 2026?6¢
- A Baidu terá o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro de 2026?<1¢
- A Z.ai terá o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro de 2026?<1¢
- A Xiaomi terá o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro de 2026?<1¢
- A SpaceXAI terá o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro de 2026?1¢
- A DeepSeek terá o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro de 2026?<1¢
- A Amazon terá o melhor modelo de IA no final de setembro de 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Anthropic holds a commanding 91% implied probability in the market for the top AI model by end of September, driven by its recent Claude releases demonstrating leading performance on key benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks. Traders see sustained momentum from Anthropic’s focus on scalable, safety-aligned large language models that have consistently outpaced competitors in third-party evaluations and enterprise adoption. OpenAI, Google, and others trail sharply at single-digit odds, reflecting slower perceived progress on flagship updates. Potential shifts could arise from major benchmark releases, unexpected model launches by rivals, or new capability demonstrations in the coming weeks that alter the competitive landscape.