- As chances de Talarico para o Senado do Texas atingirão 70% até 2 de novembro?27¢
- As probabilidades de Talarico para o Senado do Texas chegam a 75% até 2 de novembro?8¢
- As chances de Talarico para o Senado do Texas chegam a 80% até 2 de novembro?9¢
James Talarico holds a narrow lead over Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race on prediction markets, with implied probabilities recently in the low-to-mid 60s percent range on Polymarket and Kalshi. Recent Paxton audio leaks and recordings, including comments on campaign challenges and associations, have weighed on his position and supported Talarico's edge. Talarico's strong fundraising and polling advantages among independents and on cost-of-living issues have also factored in, though public polls show a tighter contest (RCP average around +2 points) than market pricing. His brief mid-October campaign absence due to flu caused a short dip in odds before recovery upon his return. With early voting beginning October 19 and Election Day November 3, traders are watching for further developments on candidate momentum, turnout, and any additional revelations in the closing weeks that could shift the closely contested race.
Regras
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the hourly odds value for James Talarico (D) in the "Texas Senate Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com meets or exceeds 70% for 4 consecutive hourly odds values, all published for a datapoint between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph on that option's detail page. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). An hour in which the hourly odds value for James Talarico (D) is below 70% ends any run of consecutive hourly odds values. Hours for which PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes no hourly odds value for James Talarico (D) (shown as "NO_PRINT") will be disregarded and will neither count toward nor end a run of consecutive hourly odds values. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for James Talarico (D) in the "Texas Senate Election 2026" listing before November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, including by removing James Talarico (D) from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point. If no hourly odds values have been published for James Talarico (D) between market creation and November 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed end date, this market will resolve to "Yes" if James Talarico (D) is the outcome of the underlying market and otherwise to "No". If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for James Talarico (D) in the "Texas Senate Election 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/senate-texas-2026.html and on that option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.