- A Rússia Unida vai ganhar entre 280 e 294 assentos na próxima eleição para a Duma Estatal russa?2¢
- O Rússia Unida ganhará entre 310 e 324 assentos na próxima eleição para a Duma Estatal da Rússia?18¢
- O Rússia Unida vencerá entre 340 e 354 assentos na próxima eleição para a Duma Estatal da Rússia?23¢
- O Rússia Unida conquistará menos de 280 assentos na próxima eleição para a Duma Estatal da Rússia?4¢
- A Rússia Unida conquistará entre 295 e 309 cadeiras na próxima eleição para a Duma Estatal da Rússia?4¢
- A Rússia Unida ganhará entre 325 e 339 assentos na próxima eleição para a Duma Estatal da Rússia?37¢
- O Rússia Unida ganhará 355 ou mais assentos na próxima eleição para a Duma Estatal da Rússia?8¢
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
United Russia enters the September 18–20, 2026 State Duma election as the dominant incumbent with roughly 310–324 seats from the prior cycle, backed by extensive administrative resources, control of single-member districts, and alignment with systemic opposition parties in a mixed electoral system. Recent party congress proceedings, including Vladimir Putin’s August address and approval of a federal list featuring long-standing loyalists alongside select war veterans, have reinforced the party’s pro-government positioning ahead of voting. State-affiliated polling and 2025 regional results indicate sustained support levels that, combined with limited genuine opposition access, point traders toward outcomes preserving a constitutional majority near current holdings. The clustered probabilities on 325–354 seats reflect expectations of modest stability or incremental gains rather than sharp shifts, amid ongoing economic pressures and wartime conditions that have not materially eroded the party’s structural advantages.