- A AfD ganhará menos de 14% de todos os votos válidos na segunda votação?9¢
- A AfD ganhará entre 14% e 17% de todos os segundos votos válidos?20¢
- A AfD ganhará entre 17% e 20% de todos os votos válidos de segundo turno?39¢
- A AfD conquistará pelo menos 20% de todos os votos válidos de segunda escolha?31¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Recent polls place the AfD near 18% in Berlin, reflecting national gains driven by voter concerns over immigration, economic pressures, and dissatisfaction with the governing CDU-SPD coalition ahead of the September 20 state election. The party has roughly doubled its 2023 result of 9.1%, with Kristin Brinker as lead candidate, yet remains closely bunched with the CDU, surging Left party, and Greens in a fragmented field where no single contender dominates. Berlin’s urban, diverse electorate and lower baseline support compared with eastern states continue to cap upside, while low SPD numbers and undecided voters sustain volatility. Late-campaign developments on turnout, security issues, or coalition signals could shift final shares within the narrow band traders currently price most heavily.