- Xi Jinping poza stanowiskiem przed 2027 rokiem?5¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Xi Jinping's consolidated authority within the Chinese Communist Party, including dominance over the Politburo and Central Committee, underpins trader expectations that he will remain in power through the end of 2026. Recent military leadership changes have reinforced rather than eroded his position, while preparations for the 21st Party Congress in 2027 center on extending his leadership into a fourth term rather than transition. With no designated successor in place and age norms applied flexibly, analysts see few near-term mechanisms or internal pressures capable of prompting removal before the market's resolution date. The "wisdom of crowds" reflected in the 94.8% implied probability for "No" aligns with this continuity outlook ahead of the next major leadership forum.