- Will Trudy peak at Category 1 or weaker?2¢
- Will Trudy peak at Category 2?5¢
- Will Trudy peak at Category 3?24¢
- Will Trudy peak at Category 4?52¢
- Will Trudy peak at Category 5?22¢
Trudy, currently a tropical storm with 50 mph winds off southern Mexico, is positioned for rapid intensification amid very warm sea surface temperatures, low initial wind shear, and favorable moisture, according to National Hurricane Center analyses. Official guidance projects it reaching hurricane strength within 24 hours and major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) by Friday, with a peak near 130 mph sustained winds consistent with Category 4. Model consensus, including strong support from ensemble runs, favors this outcome while noting potential for slight over- or under-performance based on later shear increases and mid-level humidity changes. Trader emphasis on Category 4 reflects alignment with these forecasts, tempered by typical intensity uncertainties in Eastern Pacific systems.
Zasady
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Trudy (NHC designation EP212026). Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Trudy in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. If Trudy never reaches Category 1 strength, "Category 1 or weaker" will resolve to "Yes". Wind speeds will be used exactly as published, without rounding. Maximum sustained winds are reported in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Trudy will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once Trudy dissipates. If Trudy has not dissipated by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if the advisory data needed to determine its peak intensity has not been published by that time, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point. If the data is still unavailable at the end of that period, or publication has been discontinued, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Trudy in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the issuing center differing from other sources. A reanalysis or reclassification of Trudy's intensity published after Trudy dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Trudy dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Trudy by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.