- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or below on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 19°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on October 14?>99¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or higher on October 14?<1¢
Official forecasts from the Beijing Meteorological Observatory project a daytime high of exactly 21°C on October 14 under clear to partly cloudy skies with light southerly winds shifting northerly. This aligns with current observations showing afternoon readings near 20–21°C following strong overnight radiative cooling that produced morning lows around 6–9°C and a pronounced diurnal temperature range. Model consensus and climatological baselines near 20°C reinforce trader consensus at 100% implied probability for 21°C. Only an unforecasted increase in cloud cover suppressing insolation or a station measurement revision outside the 21°C threshold would realistically alter the outcome before resolution.
Zasady
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.