- Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 20 and 23 inclusive?100¢
- Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 28 and 31 inclusive?0¢
- Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?0¢
- Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be fewer than 20?0¢
- Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 24 and 27 inclusive?0¢
- Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be between 32 and 35 inclusive?0¢
- Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be 40 or more?0¢
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
As of early September 2026, Ballotpedia tracking shows exactly 23 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election, encompassing 15 retirements from public office, seven candidates for U.S. Senate seats, and primary defeats. This total aligns with the market's 20–23 range after a wave of announcements from senior members such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and Jan Schakowsky, alongside redistricting effects and primary challenges in several states. With most state filing deadlines passed and the bulk of primaries concluded, the count has stabilized, reflecting trader consensus on limited remaining movement. Late primary outcomes in a few states or unforeseen vacancies could still shift the final tally by one or two before November.