- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on October 14?>99¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on October 14?<1¢
Market-implied odds of 100% for a 32°C high in Shenzhen on October 14 reflect strong convergence across numerical weather prediction models and recent observational trends. Subtropical high pressure and southeasterly flow are supporting daytime heating to this level, with forecasts from sources such as AccuWeather, local meteorological services, and global models consistently projecting afternoon maxima near 31–32°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. This aligns with typical mid-October climatology for the region, where reduced monsoon influence and stable atmospheric conditions allow peaks in this narrow range. The market’s near-certainty stems from tight model agreement and ongoing surface observations confirming the trajectory. A realistic challenge would require significant unexpected cloud cover, early precipitation, or a sharper steering pattern shift that caps insolation and prevents the thermometer from reaching the threshold before evening cooling sets in.
Zasady
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.