- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C or below on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on October 14?>99¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on October 14?<1¢
Forecast models and surface observations for Guangzhou on October 14, 2026, show a clear diurnal rise under mostly sunny skies, with peak temperatures expected to reach 33–34°C by mid-afternoon local time. Light southeasterly winds, low humidity aloft, and stable high pressure have limited cloud development and mixing, allowing surface heating to approach or hit this level per consensus runs from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration. Historical October maxima in the region average near 29–30°C, so the current warmth reflects a notable positive anomaly. Trader consensus at 100% implied probability for exactly 34°C aligns with this narrow forecast band, though minor shifts in timing, station-specific readings, or late-day convection could alter the official peak by 1°C.
Zasady
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.