- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?6¢6 %
- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by June 30, 2027?14¢14 %
- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by December 31, 2027?28¢28 %
- 2 %5,5 %December 31, 2026Volum 833,5k $
- 1 %14 %June 30, 2027Volum 320,6 $
- 1 %28 %December 31, 2027Volum 152,5 $
Recent US-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi have highlighted Russia's unchanged insistence on Ukraine ceding the entire Donbas region, including areas Moscow does not control, as a core condition for any settlement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has reiterated readiness for a frontline ceasefire with security guarantees but maintains that territorial concessions remain a red line, with disputes to be addressed only at the leadership level. A localized October ceasefire in occupied Oleshky enabled humanitarian evacuations yet produced no broader progress, while Russia continues operations and rejects freezes along current lines. Upcoming diplomatic channels and potential security assurances discussions may influence positions before year-end deadlines, though entrenched demands on both sides sustain uncertainty in trader assessments of near-term concessions.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.