- Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026?2¢2 %
- Will Trump be impeached by June 30, 2027?37¢37 %
- Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027?56¢56 %
- 2,1 %December 31, 2026Volum 1,1 mill. $
- 4 %36,5 %June 30, 2027Volum 32,4k $
- 1 %56,5 %December 31, 2027Volum 56,4k $
Democrats' takeover of the House following the November 2026 midterms represents the central driver shifting trader consensus on impeachment probabilities for President Trump. Control of the chamber gives Democrats the simple majority needed to advance articles without Republican support, though Senate conviction would still require a two-thirds vote. Early post-election trading has lifted implied probabilities notably higher for resolutions by mid-2027 or the end of the term, reflecting expectations of oversight hearings, subpoenas, and potential inquiries into administration actions or family business matters. Democratic leaders have signaled focus on affordability and investigations rather than immediate proceedings, while Trump has stated that unfounded impeachment efforts would damage the opposing party. The new Congress convenes in January 2027, setting the timeline for any procedural steps.
Regler
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.