- Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?40¢40 %
- Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?38¢38 %
- Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?38¢38 %
- Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?30¢30 %
- Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?30¢30 %
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?27¢27 %
- Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?25¢25 %
- Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?24¢24 %
- Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?24¢24 %
- Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?23¢23 %
- Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?22¢22 %
- Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?14¢14 %
1 %39,5 %Steve WitkoffVolum 221,2k $
38 %Jared KushnerVolum 108,4k $
1 %38 %Abbas AraghchiVolum 27,4k $
9 %30 %J.D. VanceVolum 103,4k $
6 %30 %Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al ThaniVolum 192,6k $
2 %27 %Mohammad Bagher GhalibafVolum 141,6k $
1 %24,5 %Nick StewartVolum 58,6k $
10 %24 %Ishaq DarVolum 95,5k $
23,5 %Majid Takht-RavanchiVolum 69,1k $
28 %22,5 %Kazem GharibabadiVolum 63,3k $
7 %21,5 %Rafael GrossiVolum 87k $
2 %14,5 %Badr bin Hamad Al BusaidiVolum 82,2k $
US-Iran diplomacy remains indirect and mediated primarily by Qatar, with recent Doha and Tehran exchanges focused on proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease sanctions, and address Iran's nuclear program in exchange for de-escalation steps. As of early November 2026, both sides continue reviewing mediator drafts following US limited strikes on Qeshm island and post-midterm signals from President Trump, yet Iranian officials report the US response to Tehran's seven conditions remains unconvincing while emphasizing no immediate direct meetings. Persistent gaps on nuclear concessions, blockades, and guarantees continue to shape the timeline for any formal round before year-end, alongside risks of renewed military action.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.