- Will Donald Trump Jr. be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?27¢27 %
- Will J.D. Vance be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?27¢27 %
- Will Ron DeSantis be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?22¢22 %
- Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?20¢20 %
- Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?18¢18 %
- Will Marco Rubio be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?8¢8 %
- Will Rand Paul be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?8¢8 %
- Will Donald Trump be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?5¢5 %
- Will Vivek Ramaswamy be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?4¢4 %
- Will Glenn Youngkin be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028?2¢2 %
- 6 %26,7 %Donald Trump Jr.Volum 175,9 $
- 1 %26,5 %J.D. VanceVolum 4k $
- 7 %22 %Ron DeSantisVolum 4,4k $
- 15 %20,5 %Marjorie Taylor GreeneVolum 217,5 $
- 30 %17,5 %Ted CruzVolum 6,6k $
- 3 %8,3 %Marco RubioVolum 601,4 $
- 8,2 %Rand PaulVolum 1,3k $
- 4,6 %Donald TrumpVolum 1,2k $
- 4,5 %Vivek RamaswamyVolum 380,3 $
- 1,9 %Glenn YoungkinVolum 206,5 $
Recent Republican midterm losses have heightened uncertainty over the 2028 nomination timeline, driving "Other" to lead the market as no major contender has formally declared. Ron DeSantis has climbed in trader pricing after signaling openness post-governorship, while Ted Cruz has drawn attention through public comments on affordability and party strategy. J.D. Vance's position reflects his vice-presidential role yet tempered expectations following election setbacks tied to administration policies. Lower odds for figures like Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and others stem from their recent statements of limited or no immediate plans, combined with procedural factors such as Senate or cabinet constraints. These dynamics highlight how post-election positioning and absence of announcements shape the consensus on the first formal entry.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.