- Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?90¢90 %
- Will there be exactly 7 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?8¢8 %
- Will there be exactly 8 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?2¢2 %
- Will there be exactly 9 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will there be at least 10 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- 12 %89,5 %6Volum 37k $
- 10 %7,5 %7Volum 17,8k $
- 2 %1,7 %8Volum 5,2k $
- 0,4 %9Volum 2,8k $
- 0,4 %10+Volum 3,4k $
Six by-elections have already occurred in 2026, driving the heavy market weighting toward that total. The contests took place in Gorton and Denton (February), Makerfield, Aberdeen South, and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry (all June), Clacton (August), and Holborn and St Pancras (October). Each was triggered by a resignation—most notably former Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage—often tied to leadership transitions, dual-mandate rules in Scotland, or personal/political calculations rather than widespread vacancies. No additional parliamentary by-elections currently have confirmed polling dates, and sources tracking writs and vacancies report none scheduled through year-end. With roughly eight weeks remaining, the absence of fresh triggers such as deaths, disqualifications, or further high-profile resignations supports the strong trader consensus at six. The modest probability attached to seven reflects the possibility of one late vacancy materializing and clearing the typical 21–27 working-day timetable before December 31, while higher totals remain remote given the current low rate of new openings.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026. Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).