- Brazil presidential election annulled by December 31?3¢3 %
Lula da Silva secured a decisive victory in Brazil’s October 2026 presidential runoff with a margin exceeding 4.4 million votes, prompting the Superior Electoral Court to certify the result. The defeated challenger’s initial call for annulment over a Supreme Court-ordered two-hour voting extension quickly lost momentum after the Liberal Party recognized the outcome and shifted focus to narrower claims of economic power abuse. Electoral justices have stated publicly that the large margin and negligible votes cast during the extension leave no viable path for overturning the certified tally. Trader consensus on the low probability of annulment by year-end reflects this institutional stance and historical precedent against voiding wide-margin presidential results. Late judicial developments or unforeseen evidence could theoretically alter the trajectory, though such shifts remain remote given the timeline and vote differential.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the results of the October 25 Brazilian presidential runoff election are annulled by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The results of this election will be considered annulled if they are formally declared invalid by the Brazil Tribunal Superior Eleitoral or another official body of the government of Brazil with the legal jurisdiction to do so. If an official body of the government of Brazil with legal jurisdiction to rule on this matter has formally accepted a case seeking annulment of this election and no ruling has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) the public announcement of a ruling or (ii) June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on the first qualifying ruling issued that annuls this election. Subsequent appeals or challenges will not be considered. The resolution sources will be official information from the government of Brazil and a consensus of credible reporting.