- Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?72¢72 %
- Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?28¢28 %
- Will the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?<1¢<1 %
7 %71,5 %Kuomintang (KMT)Volum 176,1k $
6 %27,9 %Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)Volum 184,4k $
KMT's incumbency advantage across most of Taiwan's 22 municipalities underpins the strong trader consensus favoring it to win the most local government heads on November 28. The party currently controls 14 seats from the prior cycle and benefits from established local networks in rural and central counties, even as KMT-TPP coordination has narrowed in some areas. Recent polls in pivotal races such as Taipei show the KMT incumbent Chiang Wan-an holding narrow leads or statistical ties with the DPP's Puma Shen, while New Taipei and Taichung results remain divided. DPP favorability has risen modestly, yet its limited current holdings constrain expectations for an outright plurality. TPP's minimal share reflects its smaller footprint and fragmented alliances. The three-week window leaves room for late shifts from turnout or targeted campaigning.
Regler
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most head of local government (mayor or magistrate) elections for Taiwan’s major special municipalities, counties, and cities during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties: Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County Only elections for the listed cities, special municipalities or counties will be counted for this market. A party will have won as soon as it becomes mathematically impossible for any other party to equal or surpass its number of wins in these elections. In the case of a tie between two or more parties for the greatest number of relevant head of local government elections won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose English name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group. Resolution of this market will be based on the results of the relevant elections, once those results are official. This market will remain open until a party has won or until the results of all of the relevant elections are made official. If the results of any of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by June 30, 2027 11:59 PM ET, the winning party will be determined based on the available results up to that point. If none of the results of the relevant 2026 Taiwanese local elections are known by that time, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).