- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 16% or more?<1¢<1 %
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%?70¢70 %
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?30¢30 %
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?<1¢<1 %
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?<1¢<1 %
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?<1¢<1 %
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?<1¢<1 %
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?<1¢<1 %
- Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?<1¢<1 %
- Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?<1¢<1 %
- Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?<1¢<1 %
- Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?<1¢<1 %
0,9 %Democrats 16%+Volum 37,9k $
49 %69,6 %Democrats 14-16%Volum 63,3k $
43 %29,6 %Democrats 12-14%Volum 64,6k $
2 %0,3 %Democrats 10-12%Volum 42,8k $
1 %0,3 %Democrats 8-10%Volum 36,6k $
Democrats hold a commanding lead in the 2026 House popular vote amid ongoing tabulation, with traders assigning 74.9% probability to a 14-16% margin as the leading outcome. Early returns and projections show Democrats at roughly 53-55% of the national vote against 43-45% for Republicans, consistent with a double-digit advantage and over 40 net seat flips. This positioning stems from strong Democratic performance across battlegrounds and some traditionally Republican districts, elevated turnout in key areas, and voter emphasis on economic concerns during the November 3 election. Remaining counts from western and urban precincts could widen the margin further, while procedural factors like ranked-choice voting in certain states introduce minor uncertainty around the final figure.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.