- Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?28¢28%
Trump’s explicit October 31 statement that he has “no plans” to meet Flávio Bolsonaro, while allowing the defeated Brazilian presidential candidate to remain in the United States, has anchored trader expectations for the remainder of 2026. Following Flávio’s October 25 election loss to incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his subsequent arrival in Miami under humanitarian parole, Trump publicly criticized the Brazilian vote but emphasized non-interference and positive ties with Lula. Administration sources have confirmed no current intent to endorse Flávio’s political claims or schedule bilateral engagement. Although the two met in May 2026, the absence of any announced follow-up amid ongoing U.S.-Brazil trade and diplomatic sensitivities has kept the implied probability of a 2026 meeting near 30 percent.
Regels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Flávio Bolsonaro between October 27, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.