- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?38¢38%
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?19¢19%
- Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?13¢13%
- Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?4¢4%
- Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?3¢3%
- Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?3¢3%
- Will John McEntee win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?3¢3%
- Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?2¢2%
- Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?2¢2%
- Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?1¢1%
- Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?1¢1%
- Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?<1¢<1%
3%38%J.D. Vance$ 16,9 mln. vol.
2%19,1%Marco Rubio$ 11,5 mln. vol.
2%13,1%Ron DeSantis$ 16,4 mln. vol.
3,6%Tucker Carlson$ 14 mln. vol.
2%3,4%Glenn Youngkin$ 9,1 mln. vol.
2,6%Ted Cruz$ 20 mln. vol.
2%2,6%John McEntee$ 1,5 mln. vol.
2,3%Thomas Massie$ 6,4 mln. vol.
1,7%Donald Trump Jr.$ 9,8 mln. vol.
1,3%Brian Kemp$ 18,5 mln. vol.
1%Joe Kent$ 9,9 mln. vol.
1%1%Ivanka Trump$ 9 mln. vol.
Trader consensus positions Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the leading candidate for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination at 49 percent, ahead of J.D. Vance at 38.6 percent, with the broader field showing several lower-probability options. This distribution reflects the open nature of the contest following the prior cycle, where no single figure holds clear structural dominance. Recent party positioning, public statements by potential contenders, and assessments of voter coalitions in key states continue to shape probabilities. Historical patterns indicate that early frontrunners often shift as primary processes, endorsements, and polling trends emerge closer to 2028. The market incorporates uncertainty around candidate eligibility, alliances, and external events that could alter trajectories before formal voting begins.
Regels
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.