- Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?69¢69%
- Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?19¢19%
- Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?8¢8%
- Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?7¢7%
- Will Nvidia have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?1¢1%
- Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?1¢1%
- Will Meituan have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will SpaceXAI have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Tencent have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1%
28%69%Google$ 14K vol.
20%18,8%Anthropic$ 11,8K vol.
1%7,8%Meta$ 1,2K vol.
2%6,6%OpenAI$ 3,8K vol.
1,1%Nvidia$ 1,4K vol.
1,1%Alibaba$ 1,2K vol.
0,8%Meituan$ 2,9K vol.
0,7%SpaceXAI$ 1,1K vol.
0,6%Z.ai$ 969,1 vol.
0,5%Baidu$ 1,2K vol.
0,5%Moonshot$ 1,1K vol.
0,5%Tencent$ 905,6 vol.
Google leads the market-implied odds at 58 percent due to its recent Gemini model updates demonstrating stronger performance on math benchmarks and Text Arena evaluations compared with peers. Multiple other labs remain closely clustered around 50 percent or lower because no single release has yet established a decisive edge in specialized mathematical reasoning tasks. Traders appear to weigh Google’s scale in training infrastructure and data against ongoing efforts at Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta to close the gap through targeted fine-tuning and new evaluation sets. With resolution just weeks away, upcoming developer conferences and any surprise benchmark drops in November could quickly shift sentiment among the tightly contested field.
Regels
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".