- AI bubble burst in 2026?8¢8%
- AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?27¢27%
- 1%7,7%December 31, 2026$ 2,6 mln. vol.
- 4%26,5%June 30, 2027$ 85,2K vol.
Recent Democratic gains in the US midterms have intensified AI bubble concerns, triggering a sharp November 6 selloff that erased trillions in market value as Nasdaq fell over 5.5% and Nvidia dropped 9%. Traders point to hyperscaler capital expenditures exceeding $700 billion in 2026—much of it debt-financed—for data centers and GPU infrastructure, with limited evidence of proportional returns from large language model deployments. Earlier warnings from the IMF and BIS highlighted risks of overinvestment mirroring past tech manias, while slowing growth at firms like Alphabet and mounting losses at startups underscore valuation pressures. Key near-term catalysts include potential regulatory curbs on data center expansion and upcoming earnings that could clarify adoption trends versus continued capex.
Regels
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. For clarity, ‘within 90 days of this market’s specified timeframe’ means that three qualifying events must occur within a single 90-day window that ends no later than the market’s final resolution deadline. For example, with a December 31, 2026 deadline, if Event A occurs on January 10, Event B on February 5, and Event C on March 3 of 2026, this would qualify because all three fall within one 90-day span. By contrast, if Event A occurs on January 10, Event B on April 20, and Event C on November 1 of 2026, they would not qualify because they do not occur within the same 90-day window. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.