- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.25% at the end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.5% at the end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.75% at the end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.0% at the end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.25% at the end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?1¢1%
- 0,5%≤1.0%$ 279,7K vol.
- 0,4%1.25$ 157K vol.
- 0,3%1.75%$ 158,1K vol.
- 0,3%2.0%$ 274,7K vol.
- 0,3%2.25%$ 101,9K vol.
- 0,3%2.5%$ 189,7K vol.
- 0,2%3.0%$ 505,1K vol.
- 0,2%3.25%$ 91K vol.
- 0,7%3.5%$ 210,3K vol.
- 1,4%3.75%$ 541,8K vol.
- 6%23,9%4.0%$ 1,4 mln. vol.
- 4%70,7%4.25%$ 586,6K vol.
Recent inflation data showing broad and persistent price pressures, combined with strong economic growth and resilient labor markets, have driven the Federal Open Market Committee toward a higher-for-longer policy path. After the September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range, the October meeting produced a hold with two dissents favoring further tightening, while the September dot plot placed the median year-end 2026 projection at 4.1-4.4%. Traders now assign the highest probabilities to 4.25% and 4.0%, reflecting near-consensus expectations of one additional quarter-point increase at the December meeting. Incoming data on inflation, employment, and growth through year-end will determine whether the terminal rate settles at these levels or shifts modestly higher.
Regels
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).