- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?3¢3%
Diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran center on resolving the disposition of Tehran’s remaining highly enriched uranium stockpile, estimated by the IAEA at over 200 kilograms of material enriched to 60 percent prior to 2025 strikes. The June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum outlined IAEA-supervised on-site down-blending as a minimum approach during a 60-day negotiation window, while recent October-November draft frameworks propose transfer to a third country or further reduction in exchange for sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has rejected any removal of the material, describing it as a national asset, and conditioned further talks on seven demands including asset releases. Ongoing Doha-mediated discussions and IAEA access limitations continue to shape verification challenges, with no confirmed transfer or acquisition by the United States as of early November 2026.
Regels
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.